North Asia Energy Demand ForecastCase Study

Coal Haul truck
Mark Gresswell

PROJECT MANAGER

Mark Gresswell
Director
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Our client, an ASX-listed energy exporter requested a detailed analysis of energy market dynamics in Japan, Korea and Taiwan.

Recommendation

Australian thermal coal is amongst the highest quality in the world, enabling more energy to be produced with less CO2 emitted per kWh of electricity produced than most alternative sources. It was critically important for our client to understand how the Paris Agreement was impacting coal demand, specifically with a focus on coal to gas switching costs.

Methodology

The methodology involved country-specific assessments of the current energy mix, future government policy, infrastructure constraints and likely demand growth.  It also involved a forecast of the range of potential energy imports displaced by alternative sources under various policy and infrastructure assumptions.

Outcome

This analysis provided the client with the requisite insights to develop and implement a detailed analysis of the power generation economics and switching costs between various fuels (e.g. LNG vs coal) and the potential substitution between these should government policy or fuel costs change in the future.

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