Nickel Market Outlook Case Study

World nickel demand has already more than doubled since 2001. But it will be rising demand for batteries that will spur future growth.

Recommendation

Given the nickel industry is progressively being influenced by the adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs), we constructed a model that integrates macro assumptions and sectoral demand drivers, including the demand for electric vehicles and stainless steel to estimate demand for nickel.

Methodology

Given the global trends of growing urban populations, rising city population density and greater infrastructure investment will continue to require high-grade steel to build taller buildings and safe transportation networks, our methodology involved an assessment of the demand sectors under a range of custom scenarios jointly developed with our client. Having undertaken similar analysis in other commodity markets we developed a top-down demand model using primary research to quantify the current and future nickel demand.

Outcome

Commodity Insights provided the client with a 10 year outlook for the nickel market that is predicated on rapid and sustained demand growth. While nickel demand for the production of stainless steel is expected to remain robust over the next decade, the use of nickel is set to shift significantly in the next decade as the result of rising demand for battery-grade nickel.

Underpinning our forecast of nickel demand growing rapidly to 2030, from 2.4Mt in 2019 to 3.9Mt by 2030 is the battery industry’s market share of nickel consumption which is set to rise to 26 per cent by 2030.