Multi-Commodity Demand ForecastCase Study

Iron Ore
Mark Gresswell

PROJECT MANAGER

Mark Gresswell
Director
view profile

Our client required a global commodity demand forecast to 2030 for a range of commodities across the energy, steel, metals and renewables sectors.  These commodities were iron ore, metallurgical coal, thermal coal, uranium, copper, nickel, zinc, lithium, rare earth elements and aluminium.

Recommendation

Given the interrelated themes across many of these commodities, we constructed four distinct demand models that incorporate both macro assumptions and sectoral demand drivers including governmental policy to derive a forecast. Underpinning these models were structural changes that influence the demand outlook (e.g., the rise of electric vehicles and renewable power, carbon and climate policy, the growth profile in SE Asia).

Methodology

Building on similar analysis in other markets, we proposed a methodology that involved defining key sectoral markets for each commodity that was then nuanced with macro-level and commodity level consumption drivers.

  • Identification of end markets
  • Macro-level consumption drivers
  • Commodity level consumption drivers
  • Commodity intensity by end-use 

Outcome

Our forecasts were utilised to support a major publication issued by the client and identified sector-specific demand drivers such as battery demand for nickel and lithium, the conversion to scrap steel for iron ore and metallurgical coal, and the surge of electric vehicles for copper and rare earth. Key sectoral drivers such as the energy transition, Asian predominance, product substitution and E-mobility were analysed and their impact on each commodity quantified. The report clearly identified that these macro trends combined with industry-specific drivers would result in a wide range of growth trajectories across the commodities out to 2030, with some more than tripling while others only growing moderately.

Your trusted partner in evolving commodity markets