Commodity Insights

Lithium Market Outlook Case Study

Lithium Market Outlook

With global investment in the battery supply chain driven by unprecedented growth in electric vehicles globally, our client wanted a market sizing study on the lithium market.

Recommendation

Given the lithium industry continues to influenced by the transition to rechargeable batteries, we constructed a model that integrates macro assumptions and sectoral demand drivers, including the demand for electric vehicles and large scale battery storage to estimate demand for battery grade lithium.

Methodology

Given Lithium’s role in the modern economy, powering rechargeable batteries in electronics and electric vehicles, our methodology involved an assessment of the demand sectors under a range of custom scenarios jointly developed with our client. Having undertaken similar analysis in other commodity markets we developed a top-down demand model using primary research to quantify the current and future lithium demand. Given the use of Li-ion technologies in electric and hybrid vehicles has dominated demand growth, our model incorporates an assessment of car manufacturers’ current plans to convert to electric vehicle production.

Outcome

Commodity Insights provided the client with a 10 year outlook for the lithium market that is predicated on rapid and sustained demand growth. While there are many competing battery technologies, lithium-ion batteries have been the clear front runner in electric vehicles for their higher energy density which underpinned our forecast of lithium demand rising rapidly to 2030, from 313kt of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2019 to 1,465 kt LCE by 2030.

Mark Gresswell

PROJECT MANAGER

Mark Gresswell
Director
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Matt Anderson

RESEARCH LEAD

Matt Anderson
Principal
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