Commodity Insights

Thermal Coal Export Forecast Case Study

Coal Reclaimer

Our client, requested a long term thermal coal market outlook. In addition to the demand forecast, the client also requested a review of the Indonesian export thermal coal market with focus on a list of Indonesian coal producers of interest and their respective assets.

Recommendation

From the analysis, the client was able to gain an overarching view of the global thermal coal market as well as the dynamics expected to drive export demand in the long term. This included an analysis of the mature markets of Japan, Korea and Taiwan as well as emerging markets in South East Asia.

Our analysis of the supply response was conducted on a regional basis with a focus on Indonesia as well as the competing exporters including Russia, South Africa and Australia.

Methodology

The export forecast for thermal coal was constructed from a breakdown of Commodity Insights energy demand model, which applies Commodity Insights’ expectations for coal-fired electricity demand.

This model also includes the forecast effects of global environmental policies, coal-fired power plant operation and economic growth. The supply outlook was developed using Commodity Insights’ cost models which allowed for a regional breakdown of operational mines as well as including upcoming projects in the forecast period.

Outcome

This analysis provided the client with a current insight into the thermal coal market from the perspective of an investor rather than a contributor to the thermal coal supply chain.

The client was able to gain detailed market transparency specific to their portfolio by region, and also on an industry level by producers. This report can effectively be used to support the client with current and future portfolio analysis and investment decisions related to thermal coal assets.

Mark Gresswell

PROJECT MANAGER

Mark Gresswell
Director
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