Our client, a major infrastructure provider, required expert witness representation in a case to be heard by the highest court in the jurisdiction. The matter under investigation was against another infrastructure provider and related to the potential constraint of bulk commodity exports from one jurisdiction and whether this constraint would artificially support exports from a competing jurisdiction.
The methodology applied to address the issue was as follows:
- Clear definition of the market by volumes and trade flows.
- Clarification of sub-markets within overall markets (i.e. by quality).
- Identify the current volume exported into each sub-market from the respective jurisdictions, which defines the contestable market.
- Forecast of the demand growth in each sub-market.
- Estimate the unconstrained growth in response to the demand forecast, from each jurisdiction into each market, based on new mine developments and infrastructure availability.
- Identify the impact of potential infrastructure constraints on the exports from each jurisdiction, therefore quantifying the impact.
Our report clearly identified that the jurisdictions were competing in several export sub-markets, with current and future volumes quantified. It also assessed the impact of potential constraints in one jurisdiction on the opportunities created in the other jurisdiction, clearly establishing a strong case for our client. For reasons external to our report and the matter it addressed, the case did not proceed to a court hearing.