Our client required a detailed market study of a competing jurisdiction and the potential threat it posed, covering market structure, production and export volumes by commodity type, producer, production region and export route/port. Also covered was a full supply cost curve and export forecast to 2030 based on known mine and infrastructure developments, while incorporating government policy considerations.
Drawing initially on our own mine-by-mine database, we were able to build a comprehensive supply picture for both production and exports through further research and modelling. Detailed export mapping models were utilised to determine whether infrastructure constraints (port and rail) would impact volumes. Cost curves were developed from the ground up, based on our proprietary methodology and covering mining, overheads, royalties, rail and port costs as well as considering foreign exchange rates.
Our client’s board and senior management team used our analysis to outline the potential competitive threats this jurisdiction may provide in the future. Our report also included supply forecasts by producer, quality and port to 2030. It also provided a full cost curve of supply to enable our client to assess the sustainability of this competitive threat. This analysis helped our client to start positioning both their marketing strategy and investment approach accordingly.